Property Market Stalls in November, Medians Hold Steady

The property market in New Zealand experienced notable stagnation in November 2023, with no change in values reported for the month or the last quarter. The national median property value remained at $806,551, reflecting a slight drop of 0.7% over the previous year. According to Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality NZ, this situation represents a holding pattern largely influenced by an elevated supply of properties and persistent concerns regarding unemployment.

Davidson noted that while there are signs of economic recovery, job growth appears to be slow, which has resulted in cautious behavior from both buyers and sellers. The November data revealed that Auckland continued to struggle, experiencing a 0.2% decline. In contrast, Dunedin and Wellington recorded marginal increases of 0.1%, while Christchurch saw a more significant rise of 0.3%. Tauranga and Hamilton also fared well, with increases of 0.6% and 0.7% respectively.

Market Conditions and Future Projections

Throughout the year, property values across the country demonstrated uneven trends, with values fluctuating between May and August as households approached the market with caution. Although there were slight signs of recovery in September and October, November’s figures highlight a retreat. Davidson pointed out that recent declines in mortgage rates could indicate a potential upward trajectory for property values moving into 2026. He emphasized that improvements in various housing affordability metrics are edging closer to long-term averages.

Despite these positive indicators, Davidson cautioned that the current data reflects a slower-than-expected recovery process. He explained that the existing higher-than-normal stock of listings continues to give buyers leverage in price negotiations. “The fundamentals seem to be moving towards growth in property values next year. But right now, we remain in a holding pattern,” he stated.

Auckland’s property market particularly suffered, marking its eighth consecutive month of decline with a total decrease of 3.1%. The impacts were felt across various regions, with only Waitākere reporting a slight increase of 0.2%. Other areas, including North Shore and Papakura, experienced declines ranging from 0.1% to 0.8%.

In Wellington, property values presented a mixed landscape. While Lower Hutt and Kāpiti Coast saw decreases of 0.5% and 0.1% respectively, Wellington City experienced a positive shift with a 0.4% increase. Davidson noted that despite these fluctuations, the overall property market in Wellington remains subdued, reflecting the cautious economic sentiment.

Provincial Markets and Emerging Trends

Provincial markets also showed signs of weakness in November, with Napier, Hastings, and Queenstown witnessing declines of 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.6% respectively. Conversely, Whangārei and Waihōpai Invercargill distinguished themselves with increases of 0.5% and 0.8%. Notably, Invercargill, alongside Gore, Ashburton, and Kaikōura, reached new peaks in property values.

Davidson characterized the current state of the property market as a series of incremental advancements and setbacks, particularly in Auckland. While the recent reduction in the official cash rate (OCR) may not have an immediate effect, the significant drop in mortgage rates over the past year suggests that as fixed terms expire, many borrowers will benefit from lower rates.

As first-time buyers remain active in the market, Davidson anticipates that a rise in sales volumes will help reduce the stock of listings in 2026, coupled with a likely economic upturn and job creation. He concluded that property values are expected to experience more consistent growth in the coming year, despite the current holding pattern observed in November.