New Poll Shows Labour Maintains Lead as National Gains Ground

A recent political poll indicates a slight increase in support for the National Party, although it remains insufficient for the coalition to regain power. Conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union between August 31 and September 2, 2023, the survey reveals that support for National rose by 1.3 points to 33.1%. Despite this uptick, the combined seat count for the centre-right bloc is still short of a governing majority.

The poll results show that New Zealand First has gained 0.3 points, bringing its support to 8.1%. Conversely, the ACT Party has seen a decline, dropping 1.9 points to 6.7%. On these figures, National would secure 42 seats in Parliament, an increase of two, while ACT would lose three seats, resulting in a total of eight. New Zealand First remains unchanged with ten seats. Collectively, the centre-right bloc would hold 60 seats, insufficient to form a government.

In contrast, the Labour Party continues to lead the poll with a slight increase of 0.2 points to 33.8%. The Green Party also saw growth, up 0.9 points to 10.7%, while Te Pāti Māori gained 1.1 points, reaching 4.3%. These numbers would allow Labour to maintain 42 seats, while the Greens would increase their representation to 13 seats. The centre-left bloc, with a combined total of 61 seats, could effectively form a government based on these results.

The current government coalition has faced escalating pressure to address economic challenges as the cost of living crisis persists. James Ross, a spokesman for the Taxpayers’ Union, described the poll as a wake-up call for National and its coalition partners. He stated, “This government is still hanging on by its fingertips. They were elected to provide cost-of-living relief, and so far they’ve been unable to deliver.” Ross emphasized that for National to enter the next election with more favorable conditions, tangible improvements in growth, jobs, and rates relief are essential.

In terms of preferred Prime Minister ratings, Christopher Luxon of National has increased by 1.5 points to 21.7%, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins has decreased by 2.5 points to 17.7%. Other notable figures include Winston Peters of New Zealand First at 10.9%, up 2.7 points, and Chloë Swarbrick of the Greens, who rose to 8.8%, an increase of 0.8 points. David Seymour of ACT saw a decrease of 2.5 points, landing at 3.7%.

The poll, which surveyed 1,000 adult New Zealanders, is weighted to reflect the overall adult population and was conducted via phone and online methods. It has a maximum margin of error of ±3.1%, with 8.2% of respondents remaining undecided regarding their party vote. Curia is a well-established polling organization in New Zealand, noted for its methodological rigor, despite having resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, these findings serve as a crucial indicator of voter sentiment ahead of the upcoming elections. The issues most pressing to voters include the cost of living, identified by 27.5% of respondents as their top concern, followed by the economy at 16.1% and health at 11.1%. As parties prepare for the electoral battleground, the focus remains on addressing the challenges faced by New Zealanders today.