Majority of Voters Call for Leadership Change in National Party

A recent poll indicates that more than half of voters in New Zealand, specifically 51%, are in favor of replacing Christopher Luxon as leader of the National Party. The Post/Freshwater Strategy survey reflects a growing desire for change within the party, coinciding with a significant decline in its public support, which now stands at just 28.4% according to a separate Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll.

The Freshwater Strategy poll reveals that only 36% of respondents believe Luxon should retain his leadership position, a decrease of two percentage points since last October. This downturn has ignited speculation regarding the future direction of the National Party as it grapples with these troubling numbers.

Support for a leadership change is particularly strong among voters of opposition parties. Approximately 69% of Labour supporters, 73% from the Greens, and 87% from Te Pāti Māori advocate for new leadership. In contrast, 67% of National voters and 60% of ACT supporters continue to back Luxon, indicating that his support remains relatively stable among the party’s core base.

If a leadership change occurs, transport and infrastructure minister Chris Bishop emerges as the preferred candidate, with 18% of voters supporting him. His popularity has risen by two points since October, making him the top choice across all voter demographics. Meanwhile, Emergency Management and Police Minister Mark Mitchell has also gained traction, rising four points to 9% in preference ratings.

The Curia poll, conducted from March 1 to March 3, 2026, highlights Luxon’s struggles, particularly following his criticized response to questions regarding the conflict in Iran. In the latest figures, Labour holds 34.4%, the Greens 10.5%, New Zealand First 9.8%, and ACT 7.5%. In the race for preferred prime minister, Labour’s Chris Hipkins has increased his rating by 4.7 points to 22.7%, while Luxon has fallen 1.0 point to 21.0%.

Details about the poll were leaked as party insiders assessed the concerning data. If these numbers translate into actual votes during the upcoming general election in November, the National Party could face a significant loss, potentially securing only 36 seats in Parliament.

Should the National Party opt to change leadership before the election, preferences for potential successors are as follows: Bishop at 18%, Willis at 11%, Stanford at 10%, and Mitchell at 9%. Notably, 31% of voters remain undecided about a replacement.

The Freshwater Strategy conducted interviews with 1,039 eligible New Zealand voters aged 18 and older between February 6 and February 12, 2026, with a margin of error of ±3%. This poll is funded by Infrastructure NZ to stimulate discussion on issues crucial to New Zealand’s future.