China Poised to Engage with Pacific Islands Forum Leaders

A geopolitics expert has stated that there is “nothing stopping” China from participating in side events during the upcoming Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders Meeting, even if dialogue partners such as the United States and Taiwan are excluded. This assertion comes as discussions surround Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele‘s proposal to limit invitations to key partners at the forum, which is set to take place in Honiara later this year.

The proposal, which has garnered backing from Palau and Samoa, is expected to be addressed at the Foreign Minister’s Meeting (FFMM) in Fiji. Anna Powles, a senior security lecturer at Massey University, noted that the decision to restrict dialogue with international partners does not prevent bilateral engagements between nations and their respective embassies.

If dialogue is postponed until 2026, Taiwan may face challenges in participating in the Honiara meeting. In contrast, China maintains an active diplomatic presence in the Solomon Islands, having established an embassy in Honiara. Sione Tekiteki, a former advisor to the PIF, highlighted that Taiwan’s absence would be particularly notable if external partners attempt to engage with Pacific nations during the meeting.

“Even if we do see a number of external partners seeking to have meetings with Pacific countries in Honiara, there will be one obvious absence – Taiwan,” Tekiteki stated. He expressed skepticism about Taiwan’s ability to obtain visas for bilateral meetings, especially following changes implemented in June.

Respect for Decisions

Powles emphasized the importance of dialogue partners respecting the decisions made by PIF leaders, particularly if they choose to delay their annual summit. “It’s essential that dialogue partners respect this decision to ensure that the meeting in Honiara does not become increasingly contested on the ground,” she remarked.

The United States has expressed disappointment over the Solomon Islands’ potential exclusion of Taiwan. In a statement reported by Reuters, an unnamed State Department spokesperson reiterated support for the continued participation of all PIF partners, including Taiwan, as agreed upon by PIF leaders in 1992.

The exclusion of dialogue partners from the PIF in 2022 was an attempt to mend a rift within the regional body. Powles noted that external interests are more pronounced in this year’s discussions. She remarked, “There are some obvious advantages of deferring the dialogue partners meeting to next year, although this effectively kicks the geopolitical can down the road for the next 12 months.”

Contextual Challenges

In 2022, the PIF faced challenges managing around 21 dialogue partners, leading to frustrations when former US Vice President Kamala Harris joined virtually while others were excluded. Powles indicated that maintaining respect for leaders’ decisions will be crucial in avoiding similar frustrations this year.

Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry has expressed that it should be allowed to attend this year’s meeting. Surangel Whipps Jr., President of Palau, recently indicated challenges surrounding Taiwan’s access to the event. Meanwhile, Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka warned that excluding Taiwan could threaten regional unity and fracture longstanding cooperation among Pacific nations.

Tekiteki, who served as PIF’s director of governance and engagement until 2024, expressed concern about how the proposal has been portrayed in the media. “There’s been a lot of media reporting around it, which has heightened this issue,” he said. He pointed out that the dynamics between Taiwan and China are not new and are always a backdrop in discussions involving foreign leaders.

“By limiting the number of partners present, leaders can focus on critical issues without the distractions that often arise in larger gatherings,” Tekiteki added. This approach might provide a valuable opportunity for Pacific leaders to engage in meaningful dialogue without external pressures.

As the situation continues to develop, the decisions made at the FFMM in Fiji will significantly shape the landscape of the Pacific Islands Forum and its future interactions with global partners.