Wellington Faces Shortage of 17,400 Homes Amid Transport Plans

Wellington is projected to be short of 17,400 homes due to contrasting transport plans proposed by the Labour and National parties. Recent findings from Waka Kotahi NZTA reveal that the government’s multibillion-dollar road initiatives, which include the construction of the second Mt Victoria and Terrace tunnels, will only facilitate the development of an additional 3,600 homes in the eastern suburbs. This figure falls significantly short of the housing needs for the entire city.

The details emerged following a select committee hearing in December, where it was noted that while the government’s plans could accommodate new housing, no comparable assessments were made for the previous administration’s $7.4 billion Let’s Get Wellington Moving (LGWM) proposal, which had included light rail and other mass transit options. A press release from LGWM in 2021 had projected that the introduction of mass rapid transit could support the creation of up to 21,000 new homes along its route, a number reiterated by Greater Wellington Regional Council chairperson Daran Ponter in correspondence with former mayor Andy Foster.

As Wellington anticipates an influx of up to 80,000 new residents by 2052, the city has recently navigated a housing crisis characterized by rising homelessness and intense competition among prospective tenants. The council’s 2023 housing strategy recommends the construction of 30,000 new homes by 2043 to address these challenges.

The calls for the revival of light rail have been voiced by Julie Anne Genter, the Green MP for Rongotai, who emphasized the necessity of connecting trains to the airport for a city of Wellington’s stature. According to Genter, the government is realistically two to three years away from commencing road construction, a timeline which could affect voter sentiment in the upcoming general election scheduled for late 2026.

Transport Minister Chris Bishop described the LGWM initiative as a “failed project.” He asserted that the current road plans would yield multiple benefits, including enhancements in productivity, economic growth, reduced travel times, and improved options for walking and cycling. Notably, he acknowledged that specific housing modelling related to these plans is still pending.

Labour candidate for Wellington Bays, Craig Renney, highlighted that the council’s strategy indicates a pressing need for an additional 30,000 homes, alongside the replacement of substandard housing. He criticized the government’s approach, pointing out that the proposed road construction could cost $1 million per meter and lead to a decade of disruption. Renney emphasized the importance of engaging with the community to develop a comprehensive plan that meets both immediate and long-term transport, housing, and economic development needs.

Local councillor Jonny Osborne echoed these sentiments, asserting that affordable and reliable mass rapid transit is essential for accommodating housing demands in the eastern suburbs. His colleague, Sam O’Brien, stated that investment in mass rapid transit is key to ensuring effective transportation solutions that can support housing growth.

Wellington Airport, a vocal proponent of the current road plans, refrained from commenting on whether the benefits would offset the housing deficit. However, they referenced a November poll conducted by Curia, which indicated that 67% of Wellington City residents support a second Mt Victoria tunnel and 74% favor proposed changes around the Basin Reserve and Arras Tunnel.

As discussions continue, the challenge of aligning transport infrastructure with housing needs remains critical for the future of Wellington. The city’s leaders face the task of balancing immediate infrastructure demands with the long-term vision for sustainable growth.