Wellington Faces Shortfall of 17,400 Homes Amid Transport Plans

Wellington is projected to fall short by 17,400 homes due to contrasting transport plans from the Labour and National parties. The revelation has sparked calls for the revival of light rail as part of the stalled Let’s Get Wellington Moving initiative. Recent responses from Waka Kotahi NZTA to a December select committee hearing highlight that the Government’s billion-dollar road changes, including new tunnels, would only facilitate 3,600 additional homes in the eastern suburbs, raising concerns about the overall housing strategy in the region.

The agency’s response focused solely on eastern suburb projections, neglecting to provide a comprehensive analysis of the entire city. Notably, no comparable modelling was conducted for the previous government’s $7.4 billion LGWM plans, which proposed light rail and other mass rapid transit options. A press release from 2021 had indicated that mass rapid transit could potentially support the construction of 21,000 new homes along the proposed routes. This figure was reiterated in a letter by Daran Ponter, chairperson of the Greater Wellington Regional Council, to then-mayor Andy Foster.

Wellington City Council forecasts suggest an influx of up to 80,000 new residents by 2052, despite a recent decline in population highlighted by the last census. The city is currently navigating a housing crisis marked by rising homelessness and a competitive rental market, where flat viewings can attract over 100 prospective tenants. The council’s housing strategy for 2023 indicates a need for 30,000 new homes by 2043 to meet growing demand.

Julie Anne Genter, a Member of Parliament for Rongotai Green, reiterated her party’s commitment to light rail, stating, “For a city like Wellington, it just makes sense to have trains to the planes.” She emphasized the need for effective public transport solutions.

The Government’s current plans face uncertainty regarding funding, with Transport Minister and Hutt South MP Chris Bishop labeling LGWM a “failed project.” He argued that the new plans would promote productivity, economic growth, and improved travel times but acknowledged that specific housing modelling had not yet been conducted. Bishop expressed confidence in breaking ground for the second Mt Victoria tunnel within the current term.

Labour Wellington Bays candidate Craig Renney pointed out that the council’s strategy indicated a pressing need for 30,000 additional homes to replace outdated housing. He criticized the current approach, noting the high cost of road construction—approximately $1 million per metre—and the significant disruption anticipated over the next decade. Renney called for genuine community engagement to create a balanced plan that addresses immediate housing and transport needs.

Councillor Jonny Osborne stressed that affordable and reliable mass rapid transit is essential for accommodating housing demands in the eastern suburbs. His colleague, councillor Sam O’Brien, echoed this sentiment, asserting that investment in mass rapid transit would yield the most significant benefits for the community.

Wellington Airport, a proponent of the latest transport proposals, refrained from commenting on the housing deficit but referred to a November poll conducted by Curia. The poll revealed that 67% of Wellington City residents support a second Mt Victoria tunnel, with 74% in favor of modifications around the Basin Reserve and Arras Tunnel.

As Wellington grapples with its housing crisis and conflicting transport plans, the need for a cohesive strategy that prioritizes both infrastructure and housing growth remains critical. The debate over the future of public transport and housing development will likely intensify as the city approaches the next general election in 2026.