Green Party Triumphs as Labour Faces Major Electoral Setback

The Green Party’s Hannah Spencer secured a significant victory in the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election on March 15, 2024, marking a decisive defeat for the Labour Party. This defeat highlights growing challenges within Labour and intensifies pressure on its leader, Keir Starmer, to demonstrate his capability to lead the party amid ongoing political turmoil.

Spencer won the contest with 40.7% of the vote, while the populist Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, secured second place with 28.7%. Labour, once a dominant force in the region, finished third with only 25.4%. This result was labeled a “clearly disappointing” outcome by Anna Turley, chair of the Labour Party, and was described as a “seismic moment” by renowned pollster John Curtice, who emphasized that the “future of British politics looks more uncertain than at any stage since the end of World War 2.”

Starmer had staked his credibility on Labour winning the seat, notably by preventing the popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing. His personal involvement included a campaign visit to the constituency, an unusual move for leaders during high-stakes elections. This defeat follows a challenging month for Starmer, during which some Labour lawmakers called for his resignation over controversial appointments, including that of veteran politician Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington, despite his connections to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Implications for Labour Ahead of Local Elections

The Gorton and Denton seat was previously considered a stronghold for Labour, which garnered over half the vote during the last general election in 2024. However, Starmer’s leadership has been marred by declining popularity, sluggish economic growth, and a series of scandals and policy reversals that have eroded voter confidence. The recent by-election was triggered by the resignation of the former MP for health reasons, creating an opportunity for challenger parties.

As the Labour Party braces for upcoming local and regional elections in May, the loss in Gorton and Denton adds to concerns about its performance. While Labour lawmakers indicated before the vote that Starmer would not face immediate threats to his leadership, they acknowledged potential challenges after the May elections, particularly given predictions of poor results in Wales and Scotland.

Changing Political Landscape and Voter Sentiment

Gorton and Denton, an area with historical significance linked to the Oasis band’s Gallagher brothers, exemplifies the shifting political landscape in the UK. The electorate is increasingly volatile, characterized by diminishing loyalty among traditional party supporters and a rise in backing for insurgent parties across the political spectrum.

The victory marks the first time the Green Party has won a one-off election for a parliamentary seat in northern England. This success increases their presence in the House of Commons to five seats out of 650. Currently, five political parties, including the Green Party, Reform UK, and the Liberal Democrats, are polling in double digits nationally, challenging the long-standing Labour-Conservative duopoly.

Despite the setback for Labour, the results also highlight the complex dynamics faced by Reform UK. The party, while leading in national opinion polls, struggled to connect with voters in Gorton and Denton. Matt Goodwin, the Reform candidate, faced backlash for previous comments regarding British Muslims, which may have alienated a significant portion of the electorate. Farage described the outcome as a “victory for sectarian voting and cheating,” reflecting ongoing tensions within the political narrative.

The outcome of this by-election signals significant shifts in British political allegiances and suggests that traditional party loyalties may continue to fracture, complicating the path forward for established parties as they prepare for future electoral contests.