New Zealand First Rises to Third in Latest RNZ Poll

New Zealand First has achieved a significant milestone by climbing to third place in the latest RNZ poll, marking its best performance in over eight years. The RNZ-Reid Research poll, released on January 23, 2024, indicates a notable shift in voter preferences, with the party’s leader, Winston Peters, gaining ground in the rankings for preferred prime minister.

According to the poll, Labour Party remains in the lead with 35% support, a slight increase of 0.7 points since the previous month. National Party follows closely with 31.9%, experiencing a decrease of 0.6 points. The most substantial change comes from New Zealand First, which has surged by 1.1 points to reach 9.8%—its highest rating with Reid Research since July 2017.

Potential Implications for Coalition Government

If these polling figures were to hold through to the election, a coalition government could secure a narrow majority with a total of 61 seats in the 120-seat Parliament. The data suggests that Labour would capture 43 seats, with the Green Party obtaining 12 and Te Pāti Māori four seats. This combination would yield 59 seats, insufficient for a majority, as the coalition parties would require 61.

In contrast, if NZ First maintains its current trajectory, it is projected to win 12 seats, while ACT is poised for nine seats, resulting in a slim majority for the coalition parties. Notably, should Te Pāti Māori retain all six of its existing seats, the Parliament could experience a two-seat overhang, leading to a potential 61-61 deadlock.

The poll, conducted between January 15 and 22, 2024, involved a survey of 1,000 eligible voters with a maximum margin of error of 3.1%. It is also worth noting that undecided or non-voters comprised 7.2% of respondents.

Winston Peters Gains Ground

Winston Peters’ rise in support is mirrored in his personal approval ratings. In the preferred prime minister category, Peters experienced a significant jump of 3.7 points, bringing his total to 12.6%. This marks his highest rating in the series since January 2016, indicating a growing interest among voters.

Labour’s Chris Hipkins continues to be the top choice among voters, receiving 21.1% support, although this is a decrease of 1.9 points. Christopher Luxon of the National Party has also seen a decline, with his approval rating at 19.4%, down 0.2 points. Almost 17% of voters chose not to select a prime ministerial candidate or stated they were uncertain.

The results of this poll signal a shifting political landscape in New Zealand, as New Zealand First’s resurgence could influence the dynamics of the upcoming election. As the political scene continues to evolve, all eyes will remain on how voters respond in the lead-up to the next election.