Maipi-Clarke Leads Leadership Poll as Te Pāti Māori Faces Turmoil

A recent poll indicates that Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke is the preferred leader among Māori voters, surpassing the current leadership of Te Pāti Māori. Conducted by Mata-Horizon Research, the survey reveals that nearly half of Māori voters lack confidence in the party’s direction. With 47 percent of respondents stating that the party is heading in the wrong direction, many appear to be disillusioned by recent internal conflicts.

The poll was commissioned as part of a broader analysis titled Te Pāti Māori: A Kaupapa in Crisis, which investigates the turmoil that has plagued the party throughout 2023. Since June, the party has faced significant challenges, including allegations of misconduct among its members and the expulsion of prominent figures like Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Tākura Ferris. An interim court order has since reinstated Kapa-Kingi’s membership pending a full hearing next year.

Recent Challenges and Leadership Concerns

The turmoil within Te Pāti Māori has drawn criticism from former party insiders who argue that the current leadership has strayed from the principles established at its inception in 2004. Founding member Amokura Panoho emphasized the importance of maintaining the party’s core values, stating, “Those principles, the tikanga that was established, weren’t just about being words on a paper. They were the values by which we were expected to reflect the political aspirations of our people.”

Former policy director Jack Tautokai McDonald expressed concern that the party’s recent controversies threaten its achievements since returning to Parliament in 2020. “I feel like that is now all at risk because of the debacle over the last few months,” he said, highlighting a growing sense of betrayal among supporters.

The survey, conducted from December 4-12, included 328 Māori voters and has a margin of error of ±5.4 percent. Among the respondents, 47 percent reported “not much” or “none” when asked about their trust in the current leadership. Only 18 percent expressed a high level of trust.

Voter Preferences and Future Outlook

In terms of preferred leadership, Maipi-Clarke emerged as the frontrunner with 19 percent support. The Hauraki-Waikato MP, recognized as one of Time magazine’s most influential rising stars, was followed by co-leader Rawiri Waititi at 12 percent, just ahead of Ferris at 11 percent. Other party figures, including co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, received lower percentages, indicating a lack of strong support for the existing leadership.

Despite the internal strife, the poll revealed that 71 percent of previous supporters expressed their likelihood to vote for Te Pāti Māori again, should an election be held immediately. This suggests a degree of resilience among the party’s base. However, the impact of recent controversies is evident, with 67 percent of voters indicating that these issues would significantly influence their voting decisions in the future.

Political scientist Lara Greaves from Victoria University remarked on the uncertainty surrounding the party’s recovery, noting that the split from the Toitū Te Tiriti movement could alienate younger voters. “It’s hard to motivate people to come out to vote when you see all of this drama,” she said, reflecting concerns about the party’s ability to inspire confidence among Māori youth.

Despite the challenges, Panoho remains optimistic about the party’s potential for recovery, emphasizing a return to honesty and collective leadership as vital for regaining its mana. “If we return to honesty, integrity and collective leadership, our movement will recover its mana,” she stated.

As Te Pāti Māori navigates these turbulent waters, the upcoming months will be crucial for re-establishing trust and re-engaging with its supporters. The results of the Mata-Horizon Research poll underscore the critical need for a clear strategy moving forward, especially in light of the next election cycle.