National Party Holds Steady as Labour Dips in New Poll Amid Economic Concerns

A recent political poll indicates that the National Party is maintaining its support, while the Labour Party has experienced a slight decline. The findings, released by the 1News Verian Poll, show National at 34% and Labour down to 32%. This comes against a backdrop of increasing economic pessimism, with concerns about the state of the economy growing among voters.

The poll, conducted from October 4 to 8, 2023, surveyed 1,014 individuals through mobile and online panels. The results suggest that if the election were held today, the National Party would secure 42 seats, while Labour would obtain 40 seats. The Green Party stands at 11%, NZ First at 9%, ACT at 8%, and Te Pāti Māori at 3%. In total, this would give the coalition of National, NZ First, and ACT 63 seats, compared to the opposition bloc of Labour, the Green Party, and Te Pāti Māori with 60 seats.

Economic outlook remains a significant concern for voters. While optimism about the economy holds at 36%, pessimism has surged from 21% to 39%. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is the preferred leader for 21% of those surveyed, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins follows with 18%. Approval ratings for the leaders reflect a challenging climate, with Luxon at -14 and Hipkins at +1.

The Reserve Bank made a significant move on October 8, cutting the Official Cash Rate to 2.50%. This action signals ongoing economic challenges as the nation grapples with a reported contraction of 0.9% in the economy during the second quarter of this year.

In a previous poll conducted in August, National was also stable at 34%, while Labour was slightly ahead at 33%. The current numbers illustrate a potential shift in voter sentiment, contributing to the coalition’s projected majority with 63 seats against the opposition’s 58 seats.

Another poll by the Taxpayers’ Union/Curia showed Labour remaining the largest party but dropping 2.6 points to 31.2%. National, meanwhile, fell 3.5 points to 29.6%. The results indicate that NZ First gained 2.5 points to reach 10.6%, and the Greens rose 1.3 points to 12%.

As the political landscape shifts, the implications of these poll results will likely influence campaign strategies in the lead-up to the next election. The centre-left coalition could potentially govern with 61 seats if current trends hold, while the centre-right would have 59 seats. This evolving situation reflects the dynamic nature of New Zealand’s political environment as economic factors increasingly come into play.