One Nation Surges to Historic Levels in New Poll Amidst Controversy

A recent poll conducted by Demos AU for Capital Brief reveals a significant shift in Australian political dynamics. The survey indicates that nearly a quarter of the electorate, specifically 23 percent, would select Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party in primary voting. This surge follows the tragic Bondi Beach massacre on December 14, 2026, where 15 individuals lost their lives, propelling One Nation’s hardline conservative stance on anti-immigration issues into the spotlight.

The results mark a notable increase for One Nation, which has now matched the coalition led by Sussan Ley, also polling at 23 percent. This development comes after a dismal showing for the coalition in May, when it faced significant losses to the Labor Party. According to George Hasanakos, head of research at Demos AU, Australia appears to be aligning with several European nations that have seen the rise of far-right populist parties. He noted that One Nation’s support had already been growing prior to the Bondi incident, creating an environment ripe for Ms. Hanson’s anti-immigration rhetoric to gain traction.

Despite the remarkable findings, veteran pollster Kevin Bonham advised caution regarding the results. He highlighted that the two-party preferred votes suggest a tie between Labor and One Nation at 50 percent, which he views as atypical. One Nation responded to the poll’s outcomes by asserting that it reflects widespread disillusionment with the traditional two-party system. The party’s official statement emphasized that this surge represents the first occasion in which a party outside of Labor and the Liberals has achieved such a level of support in a national poll.

The survey, which sampled 1,027 individuals, indicates that One Nation has gained an impressive 17 percent since the federal elections in May. Notably, 31 percent of voters from the coalition have shifted their support towards One Nation. Among women, 23 percent expressed a preference for One Nation over the coalition, while men showed an even split at 24 percent favoring One Nation.

The poll also highlighted a growing appeal among lower-income Australians, with 26 percent of those earning less than $45,000 AUD indicating their support for the party, compared to 28 percent for Labor. Hasanakos remarked on the electorate’s increasing frustration with the rising cost of living, suggesting that many Australians are actively seeking alternatives to the established political parties.

The controversy surrounding Ms. Hanson continues to fuel public interest. In November, she faced backlash after donning a burqa in parliament, an act that led to her suspension from the upper house for seven days. Recently, she and Barnaby Joyce, a former National Party member who defected to One Nation, received a warm welcome at a vigil in Bondi for the youngest victim of the massacre, 10-year-old Matilda. Attendees expressed their support with applause, while some called for the duo to “make Australia great again.”

As the political landscape continues to evolve, One Nation’s rising popularity may challenge the traditional dominance of the Labor and Liberal parties, reflecting a significant shift in voter sentiment across the nation.